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The 'good' and 'bad' news inside the US jobs report
Employment gain in May exceeded the average of 188,000 over the 10 years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic by 84,000.
Thousands line up outside a temporary unemployment office established by the Kentucky Labor Cabinet at the State Capitol Annex in Frankfort, Kentucky, U.S. June 17, 2020. / REUTERS/Bryan Woolston
he latest U.S. payrolls report did little to settle the debate about where the job market is headed, with ample fodder for both "soft-landing" believers and doubters over whether the Federal Reserve can tame inflation without sending millions of workers onto the jobless rolls.
True, the "blowout" gain of 272,000 jobs in May exceeded every single estimate among 77 economists polled by Reuters ahead of the release of the report on June 7, and the breadth of hiring was the widest in 16 months.
But also true is that the increase in the unemployment rate to 4% snapped a run of more than two full years below that benchmark. Moreover, that rise happened for the "wrong" reasons: People left the workforce on balance, while more reported as unemployed and far fewer as having a job.
Here are some of the numbers that have economists jawboning.
BREADTH
The employment gain last month was almost exactly in line with the 12-month trailing average of nearly 276,000 jobs and exceeded the average of 188,000 over the 10 years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic by 84,000.
On top of that, hiring was broad. In fact, it was the most widespread among all 250 industries tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics since January 2023. For the 72 manufacturing industries tracked by the BLS diffusion index, hiring was the broadest since October 2022, signaling perhaps a turnaround for a sector where employment growth has lagged for roughly a year and a half.
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