Jagmeet Singh, leader of the left-leaning opposition New Democrats, speaks to reporters about why he suddenly pulled his support for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, weakening the Canadian leader's position and sparking talk of an early election, in Toronto, Canada September 5, 2024. / REUTERS/Carlos Osorio

With its announcement of ending its governance agreement with the Liberals, Canada's New Democratic Party (NDP) has put the minority Liberal government’s survival at stake besides setting in motion an animated debate over advancing federal elections scheduled otherwise for October 2025.

In a campaign-style social media video, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced that he has ended his party's supply-and-confidence agreement (CASA) with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government. The first federal deal which ensured the Liberal minority government's survival.

The CASA was reached between the two parties in March 2022. Through this, the NDP committed itself to supporting the Liberal government on confidence votes in exchange for legislative commitments on NDP priorities. It was to continue till June 2025.

"Justin Trudeau has proven again and again that he will always cave to corporate greed. The Liberals have let people down. They don't deserve another chance from Canadians," Singh said in the video.

"There is another, even bigger battle ahead. The threat of Pierre Poilievre and Conservative cuts. From workers, from retirees, from young people, from patients, from families — he will cut to give more to big corporations and wealthy CEOs."

Singh said the Liberals will not stand up to corporate interests and he will be running in the next election to "stop Conservative cuts."

“What happens between now and the election will be the fight of our lives. It will put to the test what kind of country we want to be:  One that takes care of our neighbours, or one that caves to the interests of big corporations and their rich CEOs? Canadians will have a chance to choose between hope and despair. We choose hope,” he added.

Disappointing says Trudeau

The Liberals hold 154 of the 338 seats in Parliament. To get to a majority of 169 MPs, the Liberals need either the NDP (24 MPs) or the Bloc (32 MPs) to stand with them. The Green Party holds just two seats. It is not much of a factor in confidence votes.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in his message to party followers, said, "It is a disappointing day for Canadians." While reacting to Singh’s announcement, he said he hoped that the NDP would 'stay focused' on delivering for Canadians rather than politics. Trudeau held he was not angling for an election any time soon. He, however, urged the NDP leaders to support policies the two progressive parties have been backing for the last two years.

"I will let other parties focus on politics. I am focused on actually delivering the things Canadians told me this summer they need," Trudeau said. "I certainly hope that the NDP will stay true to its fundamental values, which is making sure that Canadians get the support they need and keeping away the austerity the cuts and the damage that will be done by Conservatives if they get the chance."

Leader of the Opposition (Conservative) Pierre Poilievre called Singh's announcement a "stunt" and criticized him for not saying whether he would vote non-confidence in the government.

"He came out and claimed that he was wrong, that the coalition was a bad, costly idea, but he refuses to commit to voting for a carbon tax election," Poilievre told reporters.

Poilievre asked Jagmeet Singh to commit to voting for an election at the earliest opportunity when the House of Commons returns.

"Right now, we don't have a calendar to indicate when we can put forward a motion," he said. "After Sellout Singh did this stunt today, he is going to have to vote on whether he keeps Justin Trudeau's costly government in power, or whether he triggers a carbon tax election."

In a media release accompanying his announcement, Singh said "the NDP is ready for an election, and voting non-confidence will be on the table with every confidence measure."

A spokesperson for the NDP revealed that the plan to end the agreement had been under active consideration for the past two weeks. It was kept under wraps so as not to inform the Liberal government of its decision until an hour before the video was scheduled to go live online.

Justin Trudeau hoped the next election would not happen "until next fall" so that his government has time to move forward on pharma care, dental care and school food programs. 

"The contrast with a Conservative leader that wants to cut … the programs that Canadians are relying on to get through this difficult time, well, that will be a political decision that Canadians get to take in an election," he said.

Liberals House of Commons Leader Karina Gould, who only last week said she was confident the agreement would last until June, said that Singh's decision was "a big surprise." "There were no signs in the relationship that the NDP was going to do this. It came as a big surprise to all of us today," she told media.

"Singh has just decided that this is better for him politically and he's putting at risk all of the successful programs that we have put in place over the last three years."

Through the CASA, the NDP kept the minority Liberal government in power in exchange for movement on key priorities such as dental care benefits, one-time rental supplements for low-income tenants and a temporary doubling of the GST rebate. Some of the promises the Liberal government made to the NDP, however,  have yet to be fully realized.  Pharmacare legislation hasn't passed the Senate and a bill to implement Elections Act changes is still before the House. A promised Safe Long-Term Care Act has yet to be tabled. 

While the Liberals and NDP have started to roll out a pharma care plan by agreeing to provide free contraception and diabetes treatments, the federal government was  yet  to complete deals with provincial governments to actually deliver those benefits. Even the new federal dental care program won't be fully implemented until early next year.

Many feel that the end of CASA  doesn't necessarily mean an immediate election. The Liberals could seek the support of the Bloc Québécois or try to continue negotiating with the NDP on a case-by-case basis.

NDP labour critic Matthew Green said the NDP has been re-evaluating the deal since Labour Minister Steve MacKinnon directed the Canada Industrial Relations Board to impose binding arbitration less than 24 hours after Canadian Pacific Kansas City and Canadian National Railway locked out their workers after failing to reach a deal at the bargaining table.

The snapping of CASA leaves the separatist Bloc Québécois and the NDP as possible Liberal dance partners in the coming months.