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AMA -ITV Gold Poll predicts Trump’s victory in 2024 U.S. presidential election
Pradeep Gupta, the lead pollster behind the survey, noted that voter sentiment is shifting in these key states, driven by economic worries.
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures at a campaign event ahead of the Republican presidential primary election in North Charleston, South Carolina, U.S. February 14, 2024. / Image- REUTERS/Sam Wolfe
A new poll conducted by U.S.-based research firm Axis My America, in partnership with a South Asian media network, ITV Gold, predicts that former President Donald Trump is on track to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.
The survey, which gathered data from over 9,500 respondents across all 50 states and the District of Columbia, shows Trump slightly ahead with 49 percent of the popular vote and an estimated 291 electoral votes. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris is projected to receive 48 percent of the popular vote and 247 electoral votes.
The poll highlights the importance of key battleground states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—which hold a combined 44 electoral votes. A close race in these states could swing 15 electoral votes to either side, making them crucial to the outcome of the election.
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United States Presidential Election 2024 Prediction / Image- Axis My America Pradeep Gupta, the lead pollster behind the survey, noted that voter sentiment is shifting in these key states, driven by economic worries. Economic concerns, such as inflation and healthcare access, are shaping voter decisions, with the poll revealing a divide along racial and gender lines. White and Hispanic voters are leaning toward Trump, while African Americans largely favor Harris.
Men are more likely to support Trump, while women show stronger backing for Harris. The report also shows younger voters (aged 18-34) favoring Harris, while older voters (45+) are more likely to vote Republican.
"Swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania are crucial battlegrounds, with employment and inflation being top concerns for voters," the report states.
The findings are based on a survey conducted with a comprehensive methodology that included face-to-face interviews and direct panel interactions to capture genuine voter sentiment and analyze key issues influencing the election. The prediction model is a Harvard Business Case Study and has an accuracy rate of 92 percent in the last 12 years while calling 76 elections including 3 General elections.
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