Mikes, loudspeakers and noisy campaigning through the streets have fallen silent and people are getting ready for phase one of the 2024 polls in 21 states and Union Territories which starts Apr.19. The seven phase poll ends on Jun.1 with counting on Jun.4 to determine the winners and losers of the 543 member 18th Lok Sabha.
Under threat of penalties, the Model Election Code (MCC) has kicked in states that heads to the polls in part or wholly, as in the case of Tamil Nadu. As many as 102 constituencies are in the fray for Phase One, with national and regional parties sparing no effort to push their message across in the hope of winning that vote, which could make a difference.
With exit polls having to wait until the curtains have finally come down on June 1, the common citizen has to contend with a raft of opinion polls supposedly surveying the “mood” of the nation. And as is the case in many opinion polls, there are wide divergencies with some predicting a massive win for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) while others predicting a more tempered result showing the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) falling short of the much talked about 400-plus.
In all the high pitch rhetoric by the ruling dispensation and the opposition, experts believe that both groups have an opportunity to increase their respective vote share implying that this will play out well in the coming Assembly elections. This is especially so for the BJP as the party is trying its best to improve its standing in the South, especially in Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
In the coming Lok Sabha elections, the focus is on seeing if the BJP will open its account in Kerala and if it will get one or two seats in Tamil Nadu. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has staked a lot in Tamil Nadu visiting the state at least seven times and fielding high profile candidates, including the former Governor of Puducherry, Dr. Tamilisai Sounderajan for South Madras and the BJP head for Tamil Nadu Annamalai in Coimbatore. A sizeable increase in voter share in the state will be good news for the BJP even without seats, is one thinking.
Nationally and in the states, Modi and the BJP have been hammering away at corruption and dynasty of the Congress and its partners; while the opposition I.N.D.I.A (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) have been portraying a continuation of the present scheme of things as a danger to the country’s secular credentials and a further drift towards more authoritarianism.
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