U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S. August 20, 2024 and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Bedminster, New Jersey, U.S., August 15, 2024 are seen in a combination of file photographs. REUTERS/Marco Bello, Jeenah Moon/File Photo / Reuters

An election that was meant to be on the razor’s edge delivered a split verdict, and a relatively narrow margin in the popular vote nevertheless translated to a commanding electoral college win for President-elect Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris. For many Indian Americans, Harris’s defeat struck a deeply personal chord since she represented the hope of seeing a woman of Indian heritage ascend to the highest office in their adopted homeland. Yet, even in disappointment, history was made, and the country can now celebrate Usha Chilukuri Vance, an Indian-American, as its new Second Lady. The “Samosa Caucus” of Indian-Americans in Congress expanded to six members following the election of Suhas Subramanyam from Virginia’s 10th Congressional District.

One of the striking trends noted in these polls and 2024 election data was the shifting political allegiance of Indian-Americans, long considered a reliable Democratic voting bloc. As recently as 2008, an estimated 84 percent of Indian-Americans voted for Sen. Barack Obama in the Presidential election. However, a recent Carnegie Endowment survey revealed a notable change: from 2020 to 2024, the percentage of Indian-Americans identifying as Democrats dropped from 56 percent to 47 percent, while support for now President-elect Trump jumped from 22 percent to 31 percent. These shifts may have played a key role in determining the outcome of several national and local elections. While the medical and business community has traditionally leaned Republican, the shift amongst younger Indian-American men has been especially pronounced, signaling a new dynamic in this influential voter group.

Indian-Americans, like other minority communities including Hispanics and Blacks, have not bought completely into the Democratic Party’s overt focus on progressive hot-button issues such as DEI and identity politics. Instead, they have viewed economic issues such as business opportunities and inflation as the primary factors in deciding whom to vote for. It remains to be seen if the Democratic Party will learn its lessons from the 2024 elections and recalibrate its approach to win back Indian-American voters.

A second term for President Trump comes with many challenges as well as promises for Indian-Americans and India from a geopolitical perspective. A recent report from “Stop AAPI Hate” titled “Empowered/Imperiled: The Rise of South Asian Representation and Anti-South Asian Racism” encapsulates the unique dilemma of the Indian-American community. On the one hand, it is viewed as the model minority, which has blended into the American melting pot, achieved success from coast to coast, and was represented on both sides of the 2024 Presidential contest. At the same time, anti-South Asian hate has surged in recent years, and 43 percent percent of South Asians said they had experienced an act of hate in 2023 per “Stop AAPI Hate”.

The rhetoric coming from some fellow travelers of the Trump campaign has been viewed by many as nativist and anti-immigrant. Far-right commentator Nick Fuentes for example shared very negative comments about the choice of JD Vance as a running mate solely because his wife was an Indian-American and that he had a son named “Vivek”.  

The Trump administration plans to set up detention centers and actively pursue the large-scale deportation of individuals without legal immigration status. Plans are being made to expand detention facilities, focusing particularly on metropolitan areas where many Indian immigrants lacking valid documentation are likely to live. Indians constitute the third-largest group of undocumented aliens in the United States according to Pew Research Center’s 2021 estimates, which put the number of such Indians at 725,000, following the so-called “donkey route” named after the Punjabi colloquial term “dunki” that refers to “hopping”.

What is also worrisome is the incoming Administration’s plan to issue an executive order on Day 1 aimed at restricting “birthright citizenship” under the Fourteenth Amendment. The proposal would limit automatic citizenship to children born to US citizens or permanent citizens, excluding those born to H-1B visa holders and others with temporary worker status. This would have a profound impact on the children of over 400,000 Indian workers in the US currently in the queue for employment-based green cards, according to the Cato Institute. Such a move not only challenges longstanding interpretations of the Fourteenth Amendment but also directly threatens the future of many families who contribute significantly to the U.S. economy and society. 

At the geopolitical level, the portents are a bit more positive for India as a nation. President-elect Trump met with Prime Minister Modi during his recent day visit to the US, and according to India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, a call from the PM was “… among the first three calls, I think, that President (elect) Trump took.” During a town hall in Flint, Michigan, while discussing trade and tariffs, Mr. Trump called India “… a very big abuser” but then also referred to the PM as a “fantastic man.”

The imposition of tariffs is less likely to be an issue for India since the nation is not a large exporter of manufactured goods to the US, unlike China. India is in a much better place compared to other nations because of its strategic importance and the role it can play in counterbalancing China. The Quad group that consists of the US, Japan, Australia, and India, was viewed as a key alliance under the first Trump administration. However, as is always the case with President-elect Trump given his mercurial personality and leadership style, there is a sense of uncertainty about how ties will evolve, and only time will tell.

Meanwhile, pharmaceutical entrepreneur and former Presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s elevation to a central role in President-elect Trump’s second-term administration is a significant milestone for Indian-Americans, regardless of political affiliation. Tasked alongside tech savant Elon Musk with leading the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Mr. Ramaswamy is positioned at the heart of what many view as the cornerstone of the Trump Doctrine: streamlining and downsizing the federal government to align with a vision of limited bureaucracy, reduced regulation, and fiscal conservatism. While his appointment is a source of pride for those celebrating the representation of Indian-Americans in leadership roles, it is not without controversy. For example, Mr. Ramaswamy has embraced election denialism and even endorsed the "great replacement" theory at a GOP debate. His willingness to go along with some of President Trump’s most divisive traits has cast a shadow over what could otherwise be seen as a moment of pride.

Elections have consequences, and the 2024 Presidential election was nothing short of a political earthquake. As the dust settles, one thing is certain: Indian-Americans, across the political spectrum, have reached new heights of political influence and visibility, and they are emerging as pivotal players in shaping the future of their adopted homeland. Their growing representation at the highest levels of governance is reflective of a community that is not only contributing to but actively redefining the nation's political and cultural landscape.

 

The author is a Chicago-based columnist and investment professional.

(The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of  New India Abroad.)