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India-US: A year of progress and bumps
There was trouble from the middle and the bottom of the US bureaucracy, be it the apparent encouragement of pro-Khalistani elements or the very long rope given to Bangladesh’s interim government to play as it pleased.
Narendra Modi and Joe Biden. / X/@narendramodi
If India and the United States look back on 2024 and do an honest stocktaking, they will acknowledge the year was a patchwork of progress and problems, achievements and shocks, intimacy and indictments.
The graph was a zigzag, not a smooth, upwardly mobile trajectory. There was bonhomie at the top with President Joe Biden inviting Prime Minister Narendra Modi to his home in Delaware for a bilateral meeting and the Quad summit. Both leaders described the relationship in exalted terms and patted each other’s back.
But there was trouble from the middle and the bottom of the US bureaucracy, be it the apparent encouragement of pro-Khalistani elements or the very long rope given to Bangladesh’s interim government to play as it pleased.
It seemed the India-US relationship was running on two parallel tracks – one going in a positive direction, the other in a negative. The inexplicable duality took a toll on the level of trust between the two partners. In a fragmenting world where trust among like-minded countries is becoming an essential key to open doors for better cooperation, the roster of hostile US actions and policy divergences on India’s neighbourhood do not bode well.
Sections of India’s ruling establishment, already disillusioned by America’s moralistic questioning of the Modi government, are deeply disappointed with Biden Administration’s mixed signals. Many are looking forward – perhaps, with naïve enthusiasm – to Donald Trump’s presidency. They say India will at least know exactly where it stands with Trump. Perhaps, but New Delhi must remember Trump is unpredictable and assessments and understandings can flip at the drop of post on TruthSocial.
Looking at the ledger under Biden, the Defence Department took several positive steps and actively promoted cooperation with Indian start-ups under the innovative Indus-X programme. It pushed for tech transfer and the co-production of GE engine in India which was unprecedented.
On the other side, the State Department kept largely mum as attacks on Hindus mounted in Bangladesh and the local press reported arson directed against temples and Indian cultural centers. After criticising Sheikh Hasina’s human rights record regularly at the daily briefing, the department spokesmen went silent after her ouster. They lost track of Bangladesh it seemed -- the violence under the interim government and its rabid Islamist leanings inspired no condemnation.
If significant progress was recorded in the India-US defence relationship with the sale of 31 armed MQ-9B high-altitude drones, there was also the shocking indictment of Indian tycoon Gautam Adani by US authorities on charges of securities and wire fraud and misleading US investors as the Biden Administration was winding down. The indictment came on Nov. 20, just two months before Biden leaves office.
Adani, head of a conglomerate with holdings in airports, ports, mining and green energy, is not just India’s richest businessman, he is also seen as being close to Modi. An attack on Adani is seen as an attack on the prime minister by the faithful. To say the US indictment against Adani and seven others on multiple counts shocked the Indian government would be an understatement. The crux of the charges is that Adani and co. paid bribes to Indian officials and then lied about the bribery scheme to US investors and banks while raising funds from them.
While the Indian government is staying away from the scandal, the anger against the US move is being expressed via the BJP party apparatus. Many in the right-wing eco system in New Delhi see the US move as evidence that some in the American establishment do not want to see a rising India and that powerful elements are always throwing roadblocks in the way of strong relations.
The Adani indictment – without commenting on the merits of the allegations -- wiped out some of the “good vibes” and high rhetoric diplomats on both sides had draped around the India-US partnership through the year. Adani has denied all allegations, saying “every attack makes us stronger.”
The move against Adani came after India was already struggling to put the alleged “murder-for-hire” plot against a US-based Khalistani behind it. The case involves allegations that Indian agents tried to hire an assassin to kill Gurpatwant Pannun, a man New Delhi has declared a terrorist, but the plot was foiled. The purported hitman turned out to be an US undercover agent.
While the Biden Administration tried to isolate the case from the larger relationship and continued high-level bilateral engagement with India, the episode left a deep mark on those already suspicious of American intentions. They do not see the alleged assassination plot as a blunder by New Delhi’s security managers who concocted a hair-brained scheme and then walked into an intelligence trap. They see America ignoring the Khalistanis on its soil and taking no action to curb them.
There’s no denying that many Indians feel angry at the brazenness with which US-based Khalistanis like Pannun advocate violence against Indian diplomats and Hindus in public and authorities do nothing. The violent rhetoric is explained away as “freedom of speech,” an attitude that riles both official and unofficial India as an indicator of indifference to its security concerns.
The India-US relationship is now burdened by two indictments which require delicate handling before they knock more of the wind out of the relationship. Two steps forward and two steps back can’t be good for either side.
The author is a Washington DC-based columnist specialzing in foreign policy and author of “Friends With Benefits-The India-US Story.”
(The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of New India Abroad.)
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