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How much longer before Biden wakes up?
A recent poll by the Arab American Institute has shown that two-thirds of Arab American voters have a negative view of Biden’s response to the ongoing violence, the drop in support seen as something “unprecedented” in nearly three decades of polling of this community.
Opinion polls and that too before crucial political events can be conflicting and perhaps even confusing. But there is one survey that cannot be placed in that bracket: that of the approval rating of President Joe Biden. He is consistently slipping in the charts with the latest one showing that nearly 60 percent of Americans disapprove of the job he is doing at the Oval Office.
On top of this add the number that close to 70 percent of even Democrats believe that he should not be running in 2024, he being 80 years next year and 85 at the time of stepping down after a second term, if re-elected.
The concern for the Democrats should be more on the breakdowns. For instance, only 42 percent of white Americans support Biden; with backing of only 61 percent of African Americans and 55 percent of the Asian American community. The troublesome factor in all these is not just the low numbers.
It is horrifying thought of an electoral outcome if substantial segments just sit at home on election day. And Biden’s approval rating among Independents is not something to write home about; it hovers around 40 percent. And all that political “lift” that the Democratic President was going to get from the United Auto Workers (UAW) successfully squeezing the Big Three automakers of Detroit is yet to make the charts.
As if the existing scenario is not enough, Democratic strategists should be shocked into finding that Biden’s support from among Arab Americans has tanked to an astonishing low of 17 percent, or a 42 point drop from 2020. And all of this has to do with the conflict in the Gaza and the ensuing humanitarian catastrophe.
A recent poll by the Arab American Institute has shown that two-thirds of Arab American voters have a negative view of Biden’s response to the ongoing violence, the drop in support seen as something “unprecedented” in nearly three decades of polling of this community.
In political terms Biden and Democrats should take the ground realities in such battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania seriously. Given the narrow margins of win in these states in 2020, the Biden White House should see with alarm that 25 percent of Arab American voters saying they are unsure of who they will be voting in 2024.
Worse, support to a third party candidate has gone up to 17 percent from 4 percent. The perception of Muslim and Arab American voters is that the Biden administration has not done enough in the Gaza in the wake of stepped up Israeli air and ground strikes and cutting off food, water and electricity.
The small advantage for Democrats is that the anger in the Arab American community does not necessarily turn into votes for the Republicans where the pro-Israel and anti-Hamas rhetoric is harsher and tougher.
But the Biden administration has run into another problem in the House of Representatives with the new Speaker Jim Johnson delinking Israel from the President’s security package and in the process delaying that US$ 14.5 billions in assistance that the jewish state could need urgently. It is all staring at the incumbent: low approval ratings, security package in trouble on Capitol Hill and the prospect of a government shut down in about two weeks.
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Currently Editor-in-Chief of New India Abroad, the author has reported for The Hindu from Washington DC on North America and United Nations.
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