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How race, gender, and social dynamics shaped the 2024 election
One of the most notable shifts in 2024 was the Republican Party's success in narrowing the gap in early voting, which had previously been dominated by Democrats.
File photo. / Reuters
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a blend of demographic factors, voter turnout strategies, and social trends influenced the outcome, marking a significant departure from previous election cycles. Former President Donald Trump claimed victory over Vice President Kamala Harris, capitalizing on innovative voter mobilization techniques, shifting voting trends, and a strategic appeal to specific social groups.
Republican mobilization success
One of the most notable shifts in 2024 was the Republican Party's success in narrowing the gap in early voting, which had previously been dominated by Democrats. Although the use of mail-in voting declined sharply post-pandemic, Republicans successfully focused on a novel approach to rally Election Day votes. Instead of traditional media, the GOP tapped into podcasts, social media, and the "manosphere" — a digital space popular among men — while collaborating with online creators to reach white, Black, and Latino men with a low propensity to vote. This tactic proved effective, particularly among white men and women, the latter forming 37 percent of the electorate and heavily favoring Trump, with non-college-educated white women turning out in greater numbers than their college-educated counterparts, who leaned towards Harris.
Infographics. / File Photo Democratic strategies and challenges
In contrast, the Harris campaign relied on traditional methods, prioritizing television ads and limited on-the-ground outreach in key areas. While Democrats maintained a strong presence among Black and Latino voters, these voters turned out in fewer numbers. About 7 percent of the typical Democratic voter base stayed home, further diminishing the party’s edge in an election where every vote counted. Harris managed to increase the Democratic Election Day turnout by 50 percent in critical states like Georgia, but the GOP’s strategic reach to new voters offset these gains.
Swing states show mixed results
Harris performed well in several swing states, even exceeding President Biden’s 2020 vote count in Wisconsin and Georgia. Despite these gains, Trump’s increased voter turnout nullified Harris's efforts. In Wisconsin, for example, Harris garnered 37,000 more votes than Biden had in 2020, but Trump outpaced his previous tally by 77,000. Similarly, in Georgia, where Biden received 2.47 million votes in 2020, Harris increased this to 2.54 million, but Trump still edged out Harris by adding 200,000 votes to his 2020 count.
Economic concerns shape voter sentiment
Economic anxiety played a pivotal role in voter preferences, with many citizens remaining sceptical about the state of the economy. Voters believed Trump was better equipped to address their economic concerns, showing little apprehension about the controversies that had surrounded him in previous years, such as the COVID economic collapse, the Dobbs decision, or the January 6 Capitol incident. This sentiment, paired with a belief that Trump wouldn’t exacerbate these issues, appeared to erode confidence in Harris’s campaign despite a moderate Democratic turnout.
Where investments went. / File Photo.
Religious affiliation and voting patterns
Religious affiliations further influenced the 2024 election, with the majority of Christian groups, including Protestants, Catholics, and Mormons, voting for Trump. While he claimed a significant majority among these groups, Harris found her base of support among Jewish and Muslim voters, who backed her by a considerable margin. These religious divides highlighted the broader sociopolitical rifts in American society, marking a split between Trump’s traditional conservative base and Harris's more diverse coalition.
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