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India's fertility rate plunges over 70 years, population to shrink by 2050: Lancet study
India's fertility decline reflects global trends, posing challenges to sustainable development and population stability.
India’s fertility rate plunges over 70 years / Unsplash
India has experienced a significant decline in its total fertility rate (TFR) over the past decades. From 6.18 in 1950, the TFR dropped to 1.91 in 2021, marking a noteworthy shift in demographic trends, according to a recent study published in The Lancet, one of the world's highest-impact academic journals based in England.
As per the study's projections, this decline is expected to continue, potentially plummeting to 1.3 by 2050 and a mere 1.04 by the turn of the century in 2100. Such projections indicate a substantial deviation from the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
Dramatic declines in global fertility rates set to transform global population patterns by 2100, new GBD Capstone study suggests.
— The Lancet (@TheLancet) March 20, 2024
Explore the data https://t.co/Mvc1PyR4F4 pic.twitter.com/xdpSjVLrQJ
The TFR, representing the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime, holds significant implications for population stability. With India's replacement level also pegged at 2.1, the current downward trend in fertility rates raises concerns about potential population decline in the future.
These findings resonate with a broader global trend in fertility rates, as delineated by the study. From 4.84 in 1950, the global fertility rate has dwindled to 2.23 in 2021, with forecasts indicating a further decline to 1.59 by the end of the century in 2100. The study draws upon data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, spearheaded by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.
The GBD report paints a somber picture for the future, suggesting that by 2050, fertility rates in three-quarters of all countries will fall below the threshold required to sustain population growth.
Highlighting a demographic divide in the 21st century, the GBD researchers foresee a scenario characterized by high birth rates in low-income countries, particularly in western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa.
The findings underscore a looming challenge to sustainable development, as emphasized by the GBD researchers. Among the 204 countries and territories scrutinized in the research, a staggering 155 are projected to experience fertility rates below the population replacement threshold by 2050. Alarmingly, this trend is anticipated to escalate, engulfing 198 nations by the century's end in 2100.
Factors leading to the decline
The study identifies increased access to education for women and modern contraceptives as key factors driving the decline in fertility rates. This trend is expected to accelerate in high-fertility countries, potentially mitigating population growth.
Furthermore, these measures could serve as effective population control strategies in low-income countries, which are projected to maintain higher total fertility rates (TFR) in the future. Despite the environmental benefits of declining fertility rates, the study warns of potential global tensions due to the uneven distribution of live births.
In developed or high-income countries, plummeting fertility rates may lead to an aging population, straining healthcare systems and labor markets. Conversely, high birth rates in low-income nations could exacerbate challenges related to resource scarcity and child mortality reduction, potentially leading to political instability and security issues in these regions.
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