Kamala Harris’s Clear Path to Victory in 2024: Why She Will Defeat Donald Trump

File photo. / Reuters

As we approach Nov. 5, 2024, presidential election, America stands at a critical crossroads. This election offers a stark contrast between progress and regression, unity and division. Kamala Harris, with her vision for a strong and equitable economy and her historic candidacy, is well-positioned to win the presidency. 

Together with her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, Harris has built a campaign that stands ready to secure the necessary 270 electoral votes to defeat Donald Trump. 

Let’s break down why Harris has a clear path to victory and how key states, along with voter coalitions—especially Asian Americans, women, and other minority groups—will be crucial in securing this win.

Current Polling Data (October 2024)

• Michigan: Harris leads Trump 51 percent to 47 percent, reflecting her appeal to working-class voters and support for labor unions.

• Pennsylvania: Harris is ahead by a narrow margin at 49 percent to Trump’s 48 percent. 

• Georgia: Harris leads slightly, 49 percent to Trump’s 48 percent, but a strong African American turnout could flip the state in Harris’s favor.

• Arizona: The race is tied, with both Trump and Harris polling at 49 percent, making Latino and Asian American voters pivotal in determining the outcome.

• Wisconsin: Harris is holding a 50 percent to 48 percent lead over Trump, driven by her commitment to expanding healthcare and improving economic conditions for the middle class.

• North Carolina: Trump leads Harris 50 percent to 47 percent, but increased turnout among African Americans, women, and suburban voters could swing the state.

With just a fortnight until Election Day, these margins highlight a competitive landscape but also underscore Harris’s strong position. Her campaign’s grassroots efforts, coupled with a clear policy message, have set the stage for a robust voter turnout in critical battleground states.

The Path to 270 Electoral Votes

The “Blue Wall” States: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

Kamala Harris is focusing heavily on the Midwest, where Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—integral parts of the “Blue Wall”—will be pivotal. Harris’s advocacy for labor rights, economic justice, and infrastructure investments speaks directly to working-class voters in these states, many of whom are still reeling from the economic challenges that persisted under Trump. Michigan, where Harris leads by 4 points, and Pennsylvania, where she holds a slim 1-point edge, are crucial to her pathway.

Arizona and Georgia: New Battlegrounds

Arizona and Georgia are shaping up to be the most fiercely contested states this cycle. In Georgia, Trump leads Harris by just 1 point, while in Arizona, the race is tied at 49 percent for both candidates. Harris’s appeal to Latino voters in Arizona—through her positions on immigration, Dreamers, and healthcare—could tip the scales in her favor, while the mobilization of African American voters in Georgia will be key to flipping the state.

Nevada and North Carolina

In Nevada, where Democrats have historically performed well, Harris’s pro-labor stance and healthcare policies have strong resonance with the state’s union-heavy workforce. Additionally, North Carolina’s large African American population presents another opportunity for Harris, especially given her focus on voting rights and healthcare expansion. While not yet at the tipping point, demographic shifts and voter engagement could make these states decisive in Harris’s overall strategy.

The Role of Asian Americans, Women, and Young Voters

Asian American and South Asian Communities

Asian American voters, including South Asians, are emerging as critical components of Harris’s coalition. Within this group, Hindu, Jain, Sikh, Buddhists Americans are notably rallying behind her candidacy, recognizing her commitment to diversity, social justice, and religious freedom. With rapidly growing populations in battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, these communities could provide the margin of victory in tight races. Harris, as the first South Asian and Asian American vice president, has a personal connection to these voters, further amplified by her policy focus on immigration, education, and economic opportunity.

In key states like Georgia and Arizona, voter outreach efforts within Asian American communities, including Hindu, Jain, Sikh, Buddhist Americans are accelerating. Grassroots campaigns, including digital outreach and multilingual voter education, are driving turnout among South Asian and Asian American voters—groups that traditionally have high voter engagement and are increasingly leaning Democratic.

Women Voters

Women, especially suburban women, were decisive in Trump’s 2020 loss, and they will play a similarly critical role in 2024. Harris’s strong stance on reproductive rights, healthcare, and gun safety has deeply resonated with this demographic, particularly in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. With Trump’s continued attacks on women’s rights, particularly around reproductive health, Harris’s appeal to suburban women could prove to be a major factor in winning key electoral votes.

Young Voters

Harris’s progressive platform on climate change, student loan debt relief, and racial justice makes her particularly popular with younger voters. In states with large college populations, like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, these issues are motivating factors that could drive higher turnout. Harris’s climate action plan, which aims to create millions of jobs while reducing carbon emissions, speaks directly to the concerns of the younger electorate, who are more engaged on environmental issues than any other demographic.

African American Voters

Kamala Harris’s historic candidacy as the first Black woman to run for president on a major party ticket has resonated deeply with African American voters, who make up a crucial bloc in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. Harris has long championed issues important to the Black community, from criminal justice reform to economic inequality. Her consistent advocacy for police reform, voting rights, and expanding access to healthcare has endeared her to Black voters, particularly Black women, who are among the most reliable Democrat voters.

In Georgia, for example, African American turnout is expected to be decisive, as it was in 2020. Harris’s focus on economic recovery, addressing systemic racism, and improving education aligns closely with the priorities of Black voters, ensuring robust turnout in these key battleground states.

Muslim Voters

The Muslim American electorate, particularly in swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania, has grown in political significance over the years. Muslim voters overwhelmingly supported Joe Biden in 2020 due to his commitment to civil rights, ending the Muslim travel ban, and addressing Islamophobia. Kamala Harris continues this outreach, ensuring that issues like religious freedom, civil liberties, and protection against discrimination remain at the forefront of her platform.

Harris’s campaign has focused on engaging Muslim voters through community events, outreach in mosques, and Muslim-led voter drives. In states like Michigan, where the Muslim population is particularly significant, this engagement could help secure crucial margins in tight races.

White Male Voters

While Harris faces challenges with white male voters, a demographic that has leaned toward Trump in recent elections, she is working to make inroads by focusing on economic policies that support working-class Americans. Harris’s emphasis on job creation through infrastructure, clean energy, and manufacturing, particularly in battleground states, appeals to working-class white men who have experienced economic hardships. Her policies on healthcare, education, and workers’ rights could help win over moderate white male voters in states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where these issues resonate strongly.

Republican Voters

Kamala Harris’s path to victory also includes an appeal to disaffected Republican voters, particularly those who oppose Trump’s extremism and are seeking a more stable and competent leader. Harris’s focus on rebuilding democratic norms, restoring the rule of law, and fostering bipartisanship has won over some moderate Republicans and Never-Trump conservatives. These voters, especially in suburban areas, could help Harris capture key swing states like Arizona and Georgia, where independent and moderate Republican voters played a critical role in Biden’s 2020 victory.

Independent Voters

Independent voters, who are often the deciding factor in battleground states, have been a major focus of Harris’s campaign. Harris’s policies on healthcare, economic recovery, climate change, and gun safety resonate with independents who prioritize practical solutions over partisan politics. Many independent voters are weary of Trump’s divisive rhetoric and are seeking a leader who can bring stability and unity. Harris’s appeal to decency, competence, and her promise to govern for all Americans—regardless of political affiliation—has helped her gain ground with this crucial group.

Independent voters, particularly in states like Arizona, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, where they make up a significant portion of the electorate, could be the key to tipping the balance in Harris’s favor.

The Trump Factor: Why 2024 Is Different

Donald Trump’s candidacy in 2024 is not without baggage. While he still commands a loyal base, many of the voters who abandoned him in 2020 have not returned. His divisive rhetoric, his administration's mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic, and his role in the January 6th insurrection continue to haunt his campaign. Voters, particularly in the suburbs and among women and young people, remember the chaos and instability of Trump’s presidency and are seeking a leader who can govern effectively and unite the country.

Kamala Harris offers voters that alternative. As a proven leader who has championed justice, healthcare, economic recovery, and equality, Harris presents a stark contrast to Trump’s divisive politics. Her steady leadership and inclusive message resonate with a broad range of voters, many of whom are tired of Trump’s polarizing presence.

A Winning Strategy for 2024

Kamala Harris’s path to victory is clear but challenging. If she can maintain the states that Biden won in 2020, including Arizona and Georgia, she will secure the election. However, even if some battleground states shift, Harris has multiple alternative paths. States like North Carolina and Florida are within reach, thanks to demographic shifts and Harris’s focus on key issues like healthcare and education. Meanwhile, Texas, traditionally a Republican stronghold, is becoming increasingly competitive due to its growing Latino population and urban shift.

Conclusion: The Future is Bright with Harris

Kamala Harris is ready to lead the country toward a future of unity, progress, and equity. Her broad coalition—spanning African Americans, Asian Americans, Latinos, women, and young voters—reflects the diversity of America itself. With a clear message of economic recovery, justice, and opportunity for all, Harris is on the verge of making history again.

As we move toward Election Day, voter turnout will be the decisive factor. With strong mobilization efforts in place, particularly among Asian Americans, women, and young voters, Harris is well-positioned to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

Together, we can ensure Kamala Harris defeats Donald Trump and leads America toward a brighter, more just future. Let's knock on each door and Phone Bank. Let’s fight, let’s win, and let’s build the future we all deserve. let’s elect Kamala Harris as our next President! We will win and defeat Trump.

(Ajay Bhutoria is a community leader and National Finance Committee member for Kamala Harris for President, working to mobilize South Asian, Asian American, and AAPI voters across the United States.)