The ghost of no-confidence motions haunts Trudeau

Justin Trudeau. / REUTERS/Patrick Doyle/File Photo

For Justin Trudeau and his minority Liberal government, there has been no running away from the ignominy of no-confidence motions. The House of Commons that broke for the holidays from Dec.18, 2024 till Jan.27, 2025 may have its Public Accounts Committee meeting in the first week of the New Year to discuss the possibility of early tabling of the no-confidence motion.

Normally, the Opposition parties have to wait for the Opposition days to table their motions. The Business Advisory Committee of the Commons fixes opposition days. Besides the Conservatives, the NDP also declared that it would bring up a no-confidence motion against the Justin Trudeau government after the House of Commons resumes its sitting in the last week of January.

While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is holidaying in British Columbia, Conservatives, the main opposition party, have been working overtime on modalities to bring down the Liberal government at the earliest to advance the federal elections. After their earlier three attempts of toppling the government failed, the Conservatives now intend to convene the House of Commons public accounts committee early in the new year to table a non-confidence motion aiming to make optimum use of its popularity wave for replacing Liberals as the ruling party.

According to the latest opinion polls, the Conservatives are 20 points ahead of the Liberals. They do not want this advantage to go to waste.

The chairman of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC), John Williamson of the Conservative Party, took to his social media channels a day after Boxing Day to announce that a meeting of the PAC is being recalled on Jan.7 to discuss a motion of non-confidence. He said the motion is to be tabled in Parliament when the House returns from its holiday break on Jan.27. A vote on the PAC motion could take place as early as Jan.30. 

In a Press Release, the Tories said the motion would simply read, “the Committee report to the House the following recommendation: That the House has no confidence in the Prime Minister and the Government.”

Williamson further said in his letter that all three opposition parties—the Tories, NDP, and Bloc Québécois—agree they do not have confidence in the Liberal government. If any Liberal committee member attempts to filibuster and delay the motion’s passage, he will respond by scheduling additional meetings throughout January, Williamson added.

The mandate of the PAC is to oversee government spending. Like other Committees of the House, it can also adopt reports or make recommendations to the House of Commons to take action. In case the committee were to pass a motion with such a recommendation, the House may choose to debate and vote on it, which would make it an official motion of non-confidence.

During the last sitting of Parliament, the Conservatives introduced three non-confidence motions to bring down the Liberal government and trigger an election, all of which were unsuccessful. While the New Democrats voted against all three of the motions, their leader Jagmeet Singh announced on Dec.20 that his party would bring a no-confidence motion to bring down the government after the House resumes its sitting on Jan.27.

Events have been overtaken by the developments. The announcement by the NDP leader Jagmeet Singh came at the end of a tumultuous week that saw Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resign from cabinet hours before she was set to table the Fall Economic Statement.

Her resignation acted as a catalyst in bringing together all Opposition leaders to call the Prime Minister to quit.

Incidentally, the NDP had been supporting the major Liberal government in return for its Supply and Confidence Agreement (SACA), under which it had been supporting the minority ruling party in exchange for legislations like free dental care and pharmaceutical care programs. The NDP, however, tore this SACA on Sept.4, maintaining that it would decide on a case-to-case basis how to vote on future confidence motions.

After the House adjourned for holidays, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, wanted to grab the opportunity of exploiting to the fullest the growing revolt within the Liberals after Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland sent a stunning resignation letter to Justin Trudeau. Another Minister, Sean Fraser, had declared his intentions to quit the Cabinet on Dec.18 to devote more time to his family. After Freeland’s resignation letter that shocked not only the Liberal caucus but also all political parties, things have not been going the way Justin Trudeau had imagined or planned.

His plans were further aggravated by US President-elect Donald Trump threatening a 25 percent tariff on all imports from Canada. Pierre Poilievre chose the developments to send a letter to Governor General Mary Simon to urge her to recall the House as early as possible for a non-confidence vote, given the stated lack of confidence in the government from all opposition parties. Many felt that his letter would be outside the prerogative of the governor-general, who is normally inclined to act on advice from the prime minister and not the leader of the Opposition.

Justin Trudeau was quick to name a replacement for Chrystia Freeland and reshuffled his Cabinet by inducting eight new faces, his problems did not end there. The dissent within the Liberal caucus has been growing since then. At least two MPs, including Chandra Arya, openly came out in support of Chrystia Freeland as a replacement for Trudeau.

Though Trudeau did address a meeting of the caucus and also held discussions with his Cabinet colleagues on the US developments, he has been exercising restraint in addressing issues concerning his leadership.

Meanwhile, one of his existing advisers Gerald Butts was quoted by the media saying Trudeau may soon be stepping down.

Butts, who now works for the think tank Eurasia Group, wrote an article on the political developments since Chrystia Freeland’s resignation from cabinet and growing revolt within the Liberal Party, inferring “If, as is now widely expected, Mr Trudeau’s resignation is imminent, the only way forward is a real leadership race.”

Butts argued against the Liberal caucus anointing Freeland as the new leader after she quit in dramatic fashion hours before she was scheduled to deliver the Fall Economic Statement.

Butts said Freeland’s team now believes she will be thanked for Trudeau’s job after having done the Liberal Party and the country a “favour by ringing a loud buzzer alarm into the ear of a Prime Minister who was sleepwalking toward electoral oblivion.”

“Chrystia Freeland was the first person recruited to Team Trudeau to help shape that agenda and make it real for people,” Butts wrote about how the Liberal Party soared back to power in 2015 promising to boost the middle class.

Butts, who served as principal secretary to Trudeau from 2015 to 2019, added he had not expected the political partnership between Freeland and Trudeau would “end in tears.”

This development makes it more likely Trudeau won’t lead the Liberal Party in the next election, Butts said, with the election now likely coming sooner and with greater odds of a Conservative majority.

Freeland, known as a politician of few words, has not spoken to the media after her resignation. She, however, said in her resignation letter that she will run in the next election, unlike the other five ministers who have recently left the cabinet and announced to quit federal politics after the next election.

Pressure has been building up on Trudeau to step down since the Liberal Party lost a couple of its stronghold ridings in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.