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The impending Pakistan conundrum for US foreign policy
Since 2022, with the downfall of former prime minister Imran Khan, or Im the Dim as he is affectionately known, predictions of Pakistan’s impending implosion have become commonplace.
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Lahore, March 17, 2023. / REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
With the two national conventions now in the rearview mirror and the US presidential election just around the corner, both Democrats and Republicans have been rolling out their policy platforms on a range of issues, including foreign policy. Glaringly absent from both agendas, however, is any mention of Pakistan.
Not that Pakistan is a US strategic partner anymore, or a legitimate partner of any country for that matter, save China. But given recent developments in Pakistan and the region more broadly, any incoming administration needs to start preparing for the worst.
Since 2022, with the downfall of former prime minister Imran Khan, or Im the Dim as he is affectionately known, predictions of Pakistan’s impending implosion have become commonplace.
Whether these predictions are rooted in reality or mere hyperbole is the real question. And if Pakistan is indeed on a downward trajectory that it cannot recover from, how should US policy deal with it when a new administration comes to power?
Of course, it's important to first define terms. An implosion, for instance, wouldn’t mean the complete dissolution of the state in its entirety. Instead, it would represent a weak central government that is unable to extend its power or the rule of law much farther beyond the capital in Islamabad and military headquarters in Rawalpindi. This state of lawlessness would feature political instability, economic collapse, and the increased power and influence of non-state actors.
Based on these parameters, it's certainly plausible and more likely than not that Pakistan will descend into irredeemable chaos within the next few years.
A Spiraling Descent into Chaos
In many ways, the downward spiral has already been years in the making and has only rapidly accelerated more recently.
For one, the country’s authoritarian military-civilian power structure has become even more dysfunctional than usual with the outright rigging of the February 8 elections and the ongoing battle between Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and the army leadership. This conflict came to a head when Khan was imprisoned last year and with the previously unheard-of arrest of a former ISI director general, Faiz Hameed, a close Khan ally.
Despite their ongoing tussle, Khan represents the military establishment’s “traditional worldview” according to former Pakistani ambassador to the US, Husain Haqqani.
More specifically, “[h]e is a particular mix of Pan-Islamism, Muslim exceptionalism, and anti-India Pakistani nationalism that can be identified with military rulers such as General Ayub Khan and General Pervez Musharraf.” Which is exactly why he has become so popular and such a formidable opponent for the military.
In addition to the ongoing political turmoil, the state and its security forces have been unable to deal effectively with terrorist groups operating on its soil, such as the Pakistani Taliban. During 2023, there were 789 attacks and counter-terror operations across the country resulting in approximately 1,524 deaths.
This ineffectiveness in stemming terrorism within its borders, however, hasn't stopped the military complex from continuing to foment terror externally in India and Afghanistan.
As security analyst Sushant Sareen notes, “Pakistan has a fundamental ideological confusion in both state and society that militates against successfully fighting terrorism. It is not possible to extol the virtues of jihad against India, nurture and support terrorist organi[z]ations active against India, but fight against similar organi[z]ations that target Pakistan.”
There's also been speculation that the Pakistani intelligence services may have had a hand in supporting the coup that toppled Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh through its Islamist proxies.
Moreover, ethnic and sectarian strife remains rampant across the country. For instance, Balochistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir have been rocked by massive unrest and anti-Pakistan sentiments, not to mention simmering discontent amongst Sindhis and Pashtuns.
Similarly, Islamist extremism and systematic violence and discrimination against Hindus, Christians, and Ahmadiyyas continue unabated. Islamists exert tremendous sway over government institutions, as they recently demonstrated when the radical Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan forced the Supreme Court to change part of its verdict regarding the rights of the Ahmadiyya minority in a blasphemy case.
Perhaps most importantly and despite bailouts from international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or individual countries, Pakistan’s economy is in shambles, with record levels of inflation, unemployment, and stagnant economic growth. Its most successful export is not any actual good or service, but terrorism through its transnational networks.
So how exactly should the US deal with this out-of-control Frankenstein?
US Policy and Preparing for the Inevitable
Regardless of who is elected president in November, the new administration needs to pay close attention to developments in Pakistan, acknowledge the extent of the crisis, and formulate policies accordingly.
That means not continuing policy mistakes of the past, such as appeasing military leaders who use terror as a foreign policy tool, looking the other way while Islamists run roughshod over civil society and religious minorities, or allowing institutions like the IMF to prop up its economy by granting debt waivers and not enforcing real structural reforms.
Instead, a tough no nonsense approach is the need of the hour, including but not limited to sanctions on military and civilian leaders, who amass wealth abroad while committing gross human rights violations at home, and withholding all aid (both direct and indirect through other institutions) until certain economic, military, and legal/constitutional conditions are met.
Fear of a Pakistani collapse, which it is already headed towards, can no longer be an excuse to give into Pakistan’s childlike tantrums and blackmail.
Ultimately as an unnatural and artificially created entity, Pakistan is similar to a computer system that was inherently flawed from its inception and requires a complete system reboot.
The sooner US policymakers accept this reality, the better off the world will be.
The author is the managing director of Policy & Programs, and Co-Legal Counsel at the Hindu American Foundation.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of New India Abroad.
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