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2023- The Year that was not….
The year that has gone by, will be remembered for the gruesome Hamas attack and the retaliatory attacks of Israel leading to a prolonged war
Representative Image / Unsplash
When one does some retrospective stock taking of this year, 2023 can only be termed as a challenging one in every sense of the word. While there were some success stories such as the G20, they were few and far between.
The year that has gone by, will be remembered for the gruesome Hamas attack on the anniversary of the Yom Kippur war and the retaliatory attacks of Israel leading to a prolonged war. Despite the overwhelming appeal for cessation, Israel has clearly indicated that it would like to eliminate Hamas.
History has recorded that one can not root out terrorism or eliminate all the perpetrators, irrespective of how intense and sustained the campaign is. The neighbours and, more importantly, the civilians in the Gaza Strip have paid heavily for the unwarranted excesses on both sides though Hamas has to take the blame for starting this unholy war.
A time has come to accept and implement the solution of two states that has evaded any concrete action. With the ongoing war in Gaza strip, the Russia-Ukraine war or even the stand off along the LAC between India and China appears to pale in comparison.
The launch of attacks on merchant ships using drones and even missiles by the Houthis supported by Iran has complicated matters in the maritime domain. Ships on passage through the Red sea are facing increased threats from seaborne and airborne threats . As per the recent reports some 35 billion worth of goods are being diverted from the area to avoid attacks and this would result in increased transportation and insurance costs.
The food, energy and political crisis that set afoot with the Russia Ukraine war three years ago has shown no signs of abatement and has strained the global supply chains. The recent incidents portend great challenges for all nations. While US and other western nations are working hard to bring the situation under control, India which sits astride the Indian Ocean, has a pivotal role in ensuring that these threats are countered by using its time tested capacity, capability and intentions to manage the maritime domain with finesse.
The silver lining as far as India is concerned is the successful launch of the Chandrayaan that proved the prowess of the Indian Space Scientists and the support echelons who demonstrated the successful landing in a zone where no other nation has landed yet.
The other thing was the opportunity of the G20 leadership that was imaginatively used to demonstrate the versatility of the Modi led government to capture the imagination of the world and also ensure that Africa was brought onboard to represent the inclusive voice of the Global South.
It also appears that plenty of action has taken place in the maritime domain and in the maritime neighbourhood of India . While the elections in Maldives have thrown up a new pro China dispensation, India has many challenges of dealing with a neighbour who, despite the historical and cultural relations, has acted against time-tested equations, reminding India of the days of Yameen, which posed similar challenges. With the determined bid of the new government to keep Indian forces out of Maldives, there are new dynamics of balancing that India needs to contend with.
The two PLA research vessels seeking entry to ports in Sri Lanka made headlines in the media and after all the back door discussions, it appears that Sri Lanka, conscious of India’s security concerns, has worked hard to pass laws to prevent the entry of such vessels in Sri Lankan waters for purposes of research.
It has been a bad year for China under Xi Jinping which has faced economic slow down, increase in unemployment, a U turn on zero covid policy due protests and a critical downsizing of BRI plans due to backlash from the affected countries and also due to a lack of confidence in the investments that appear to only benefit only China.
With the withdrawal of Italy a major supporter of BRI, more and more nations will critically evaluate and scrutinize the projects. China though conducted the third Belt and Road Forum, is equally wary of the criticism and would be compelled to review many provisions of the BRI notably the terms for repayment of debts and enhancing the opportunities for local population, which hitherto have been denied any great opportunities for productive employment.
After the successful commissioning of homegrown Indian Carrier Virkant and completion of the operational workup for induction in to the fleet, it appears that the third carrier, after all, may be built, though speculations of that being a nuclear carrier of much larger dimension have been put to rest.
As a tumultuous year comes to a close, the world braces for the outcome of elections in USA, India and Bangladesh. The electoral verdict in all these elections would impact the political, economic and strategic equations around the world.
Au revoir 2023 and a hearty welcome to 2024, and hope it brings new tides of hope for a world that can come to terms with the challenges and aims to live in harmony.
The author is the Director General Chennai Centre for China Studies. Regional Director NMF (Tamil Nadu)
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